The Russian automotive industry has replaced 350 critical components out of 740, but the dependence has shifted: from Western suppliers to Chinese ones. The main thing, according to interviewed industry experts, is that the most difficult part of the work is ahead. Full import substitution is planned by 2030, as reported by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Dmitry Evdokimov, an expert at the Presidential Academy, noted that the number of replaced items does not reflect their cost and technological complexity: the remaining 50% will require longer development and significantly greater investment. A total of 2.7 trillion rubles has been allocated for R&D and the organization of component production until 2035. Until 2022, no more than 1.5–2 billion rubles per year were allocated for these purposes.
Vladimir Chernov, an expert at Freedom Global, cited data from the Chinese customs: in the first half of 2026, Russia imported Chinese auto components worth almost 1.2 billion dollars, 14% more year-on-year. The share of Chinese brands in the market exceeds 60%. He also warned that one should not expect cars to become cheaper: with small volumes, Russian components may be more expensive than mass-produced Chinese counterparts. NRA expert Yulia Katasonova added: the main effect now is the reliability of supplies, so that the entire conveyor does not stop due to one part.