Asteroid 2024 YR4 is considered one of the most potentially dangerous for Earth due to a possible entry into the planet's atmosphere in 2032. However, the probability of such a scenario remains extremely low. Yevgeny Burmistrov, an astronomy expert from Perm National Research Polytechnic University, revealed the details.
Potentially hazardous asteroids are those that cross Earth's orbit at a distance closer than 7.5 million km and have sizes ranging from approximately 50 to 100 meters.
Currently, scientists are particularly focused on the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4. According to preliminary estimates, it may enter Earth's atmosphere on December 22, 2032.
If a collision with it occurs, it could cause destruction within a radius of up to 30 km – comparable to the impact on a large city.
However, the probability of a collision is extremely low. Specialists plan to refine the asteroid's trajectory during its next close approach to Earth in 2028.
The expert emphasizes that there is no cause for serious concern: the probability of a collision is estimated at approximately 0.0017%.
Furthermore, humanity has already learned to influence asteroid trajectories. Several years ago, a spacecraft intentionally collided with the asteroid Dimorphos, changing its orbit: the orbital period was shortened by half an hour, and the direction of movement shifted by thousands of kilometers.
According to specialists, such changes are sufficient for a potentially dangerous celestial body to pass by Earth.