A regulated crypto market in Russia could become the main trading channel for local investors, but it will take time. Alexey Korolenko, Executive Director of Cifra Markets, believes that a significant shift towards a legal framework will not happen earlier than in 2–3 years.
The main effect of the new rules, according to him, is the “whitening” of the market. Currently, cryptocurrencies still appear as a gray area for many: people don't always understand whether such investments are legal and how their rights are protected. Regulation should remove this uncertainty and create a clear infrastructure for buying, storing, and selling digital assets.
Korolenko expects that after the launch of convenient services by major financial players within the regulated framework, up to 1 million crypto accounts could appear in the first year. The key factor will be a simple scenario: buy cryptocurrency in an app, see the balance, sell the asset, and withdraw money in rubles without P2P transfers, trips to "Moscow City," and correspondence with unfamiliar intermediaries.
Initially, qualified investors and wealthy clients are likely to enter the market. Mass retail will join later – when buying cryptocurrency becomes as straightforward as buying stocks in a banking application.
For unqualified investors, a limit of up to 300,000 rubles per year is being discussed. Korolenko considers it reasonable for familiarization with a new instrument: cryptocurrencies remain a high-risk and volatile asset.
The initial demand, according to his assessment, will be formed by basic operations – buying and storing the largest cryptocurrencies, primarily Bitcoin and Ethereum. The expert does not expect a rapid migration from foreign exchanges: global platforms still offer more tools. But if the Russian framework provides convenience, clear rules, and protection, its share will gradually grow.
Ultimately, in 2–3 years, cryptocurrencies in Russia could transition from a semi-gray area to a familiar investment product – with brokers, licenses, and a clear entry point for private investors.